With the decade-long domination of Juventus long over, Italy’s Serie A is more wide open than ever, and it has made for a fascinating season with drama, excitement and unpredictable twists up and down the table.
As of mid-April, there are still three teams with a very realistic shot at claiming the Scudetto, while three other teams battle for Champions League places.
The two Milan clubs, now mostly recovered from their long hibernation, are now the frontrunners for the title. Juventus had a horrid start to the season, but the Old Lady has since recovered and is battling for a Champions League berth.
Here’s a full overview of the Italian top flight as it currently stands.
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Serie A Scudetto title race
The race for the 2021-22 Scudetto is one of the most exciting in recent memory. Three teams sit with a realistic chance to finish atop the table, including the two Milan clubs back where fans believe they belong.
With five to six matches remaining, AC Milan has recaptured the top spot, but according to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction metric, it does not have the best chance to win the league. That would be cross-town rivals Inter Milan, who currently sits with a 66 percent chance to defend last year’s crown thanks to a game in hand.
AC Milan, meanwhile, sits with a 21 percent chance to finish first, and Napoli is back at just 12 percent, sitting two points behind.
|1.||AC Milan||71||33||+29||Apr. 24 @ Lazio|
|2.||Inter Milan||69||32||+43||Apr. 23 vs. Roma|
|3.||Napoli||66||32||+32||Apr. 18 vs. Roma|
Serie A Champions League race
While the dismal start to the season left Juventus outside the race to win the title, the recent resurgence has left the Italian giants with a great chance to secure the final Champions League qualification spot.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Juventus currently has an 82 percent chance to secure the final berth that goes to fourth place, while Roma is back at just six percent, both Lazio and Fiorentina with five percent, and Atalanta at four percent.
The Old Lady has not missed Champions League play since 2011, and that does not appear to be changing this season.
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|1.*||AC Milan||71||33||+29||Apr. 24 @ Lazio|
|2.*||Inter Milan||69||32||+43||Apr. 23 vs. Roma|
|3.*||Napoli||66||32||+32||Apr. 18 vs. Roma|
|4.*||Juventus||63||33||+21||Apr. 25 @ Sassuolo|
|5.||Roma||57||32||+17||Apr. 18 @ Napoli|
|6.||Fiorentina||56||32||+13||Apr. 24 @ Salernitana|
* = qualifies directly for next season’s UEFA Champions League
Serie A European places
In addition to the four Champions League spots there are three other European berths:
- Europa League (2): 5th or 6th place and Coppa Italia winner
- Europa Conference League (1): 6th or 7th place
Fifth place automatically qualifies a team for the Europa League no matter what. Then, after that, there are different scenarios at play.
The second Europa League place is reserved for the Coppa Italia winner. If any of the teams currently in the Champions League places also win the Coppa Italia, then the Coppa Italia’s Europa League spot would go to the sixth-place finisher in the Serie A table.
Depending on whether the Coppa Italia’s Europa League spot transfers to the sixth-place team, that will determine whether the Europa Conference League berth goes to sixth place or seventh place.
Should AS Roma win the current edition of the Europa Conference League, that would guarantee them a spot in next season’s Europa League, further shuffling the European spots in Serie A. Roma are in the semifinals against Leicester City.
|4.*||Juventus||63||33||+21||Apr. 25 @ Sassuolo|
|5.**||Roma||57||32||+17||Apr. 18 @ Napoli|
|6.***||Fiorentina||56||32||+13||Apr. 24 @ Salernitana|
|7.||Lazio||56||33||+17||Apr. 24 vs. AC Milan|
|8.||Atalanta||51||31||+17||Apr. 18 vs. Verona|
|9.||Sassuolo||46||33||+5||Apr. 25 vs. Juventus|
|10.||Verona||45||32||+7||Apr. 18 @ Atalanta|
* = Champions League berth
** = Highest possible Europa League berth
*** = Highest possible Europa Conference League berth
Serie A relegation battle
The bottom three teams in Serie A will be relegated to next season’s second-division Serie B competition, and the race is heated.
Last-placed Salernitana looks dead in the water and has a 97 percent chance to go down according to FiveThirtyEight, though it still has games in hand.
There seem to be two teams destined to join Salernitana in the other two spots, with Genoa (91 percent chance) and Venezia (91 percent chance) both needing a miraculous run to remain in the top division. Cagliari (13 percent chance) and Sampdoria (8 percent) are in the danger zone and a series of disastrous results could make for a nervy final few weeks.
Genoa-Cagliari (April 24) and the derby between Genoa-Sampdoria (May 1) on consecutive weekends will play a major role in the final outcome. Salernitana-Venezia (April 27) and Venezia-Cagliari (May 22) on the final matchday are two of the other head-to-heads remaining.
|11.||Torino||40||32||+5||Apr. 23 vs. Spezia|
|12.||Udinese||39||31||-2||Apr. 20 vs. Salernitana|
|13.||Bologna||38||32||-10||Apr. 24 vs. Udinese|
|14.||Empoli||34||33||-18||Apr. 24 vs. Napoli|
|15.||Spezia||33||33||-24||Apr. 23 @ Torino|
|16.||Sampdoria||29||33||-16||Apr. 23 @ Verona|
|17.||Cagliari||28||33||-30||Apr. 24 @ Genoa|
|18.*||Venezia||22||32||-32||Apr. 23 vs. Atalanta|
|19.*||Genoa||22||33||-30||Apr. 24 vs. Cagliari|
|20.*||Salernitana||19||31||-44||Apr. 20 @ Udinese|
* = relegated to second-tier Serie B