EU Mid-Market Update: Euro Area Apr PMI Manufacturing stays in expansion territory; focus on upcoming rate decisions during the week.
– Risk appetite weighed upon by risk of more sanctions targeting Russian oil.
– Euro Area Apr PMI Manufacturing data holds onto growth (Beats: France, Germany, Euro Zone, Misses: Spain, Italy).
– China’s economy sputtering as PMI Manufacturing stays in contraction territory; likely to slow further before it recovering.
– Focus on upcoming Fed decision (Wed). FOMC to likely kick off a more aggressive response to elevated inflation pressure.
– Various market closures during the week. Hong Kong closed for Monday. China Shanghai markets until Thursday for golden week; (Note: Tokyo markets closed Tuesday thru Thursday).
– China Apr Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official): 47.4 v 48.0e (2nd straight contraction).
– China Apr Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 46.0 v 47.0e (2nd straight contraction).
– Australia Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 58.8 v 57.9 prelim (confirmed 23rd month of expansion).
– Japan Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 53.5 v 53.4 prelim (confirmed 15th consecutive expansion).
– China regulators said to have recently discussed ways to protect China’s overseas assets from possible US sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia.
– Russia said to attempt to open up a new front against Ukraine from Moldova.
– ECB’s De Guindos (Spain) stated that there was no reason why APP end (conventional QE) should not happen in July. Rate hike after that would depend on the data and the new macroeconomic projections in June.
– ECB’s Holzmann (Austria, hawk) favored quick action on rates and expected a hike in summer or autumn.
– Germany said to have called for a phased-in ban on Russian oil imports to the EU. Govt was in favor of an oil embargo, but needed a few months to prepare.
– Austria, Hungary and Slovakia said to have withdrawn their objection to EU embargo on Russian oil after lengthy discussions; the open question is the transition period.
– Fitch affirmed Germany sovereign rating at AAA; Outlook Stable.
– Canadian ratings agency DBRS affirmed Italy sovereign rating at BBB (high), Stable trend.
Indices [Stoxx600 -1.38% at 444.20, FTSE closed, DAX -1.28% at 13,917.50, CAC-40 -1.97% at 6,405.20, IBEX-35 -1.16% at 8,485.05, FTSE MIB -1.64% at 23,855.00, SMI -1.13% at 11,991.71, S&P 500 Futures +0.15%].
Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open lower across the board and descended further as the session wore on; all sectors start the day in the red; least negative sectors include materials and consumer discretionary; sectors among those leading to the downside are industrials and real estate; Ireland, Russia and UK closed for holidays; MGM to acquire LeoVegas; focus on US PMI figures later in the day; earnings expected during the upcoming Americas session include Lowes, Expedia, Avis Budget and Moody’s.
– Financials: Adler Group [ADJ.DE] -45% (earnings; board resignation).
– Industrials: Volkswagen [VOW3.DE] -2.5% (contract with Qualcomm; CEO comments), Vestas Wind Systems [VWS.DK] -7% (earnings), Stabilus [STM.DE] -1.5% (earnings).
– Germany Econ Min Habeck stated that the govt would be able to endure oil embargo; Still no unity among EU Member States on an oil embargo.
– Hungary govt spokesperson stated that the govt opposed any EU embargo on Russian oil and gas imports.
– Finland said to have decided to apply for NATO membership on Thurs, May 12th.
– USD holding on to its recent gains with focus on Wed’s FOMC rate decision. Dealers note the green back was reflecting the likely Fed’s very hawkish stance to address inflationary concerns.
– EUR/USD hovering around the 1.0550 area as markets weigh the likelihood of an ECB rate hike by mid-year. The debate was whether ECB broke its planned sequencing with rate hike in Jun or July period.
– AUD/USD was softer ahead of Tuesday’s RBA rate decision.. The overall form tone of the USD and the upcoming Fed decision offsetting the potential for RBA to hike for the 1st time in over a decade. A soft tone in various commodity prices also providing some headwinds for the Aussie.
– (FI) Finland Mar Unemployment Rate: 7.0% v 6.7% prior.
– (DE) Germany Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.7% v -0.5%e.
– (AU) Australia Apr Commodity Index: 153.1 v 151.9 prior.
– (SE) Sweden Apr PMI Manufacturing: 55.0 v 55.0e (23rd month of expansion).
– (NL) Netherlands Apr Manufacturing PMI: 59.9 v 58.0e (21st straight expansion).
– (PL) Poland Apr Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 51.9e (22nd month of expansion).
– (HU) Hungary Apr Manufacturing PMI: 58.9 v 55.0e (12th straight expansion).
– (HU) Hungary Mar PPI M/M: 4.8% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 25.9% v 22.4% prior.
– (HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: -€0.1B v -€0.1B prelim.
– (CH) Swiss Q2 SECO Consumer Confidence: -27.4 v -15.5e.
– (ES) Spain Apr Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 54.0e (15th month of expansion and lowest since Feb 2021).
– (CH) Swiss Apr PMI Manufacturing: 62.5 v 60.4e (21st straight expansion).
– (CZ) Czech Republic Apr Manufacturing PMI: 54.4 v 53.8e (20th straight expansion).
– (IT) Italy Apr Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 v 55.0e (22nd month of expansion but lowest reading since Dec 2020).
– (FR) France Apr Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 v 55.4 prelim (confirmed 17th month of expansion).
– (DE) Germany Apr Manufacturing PMI: 54.6 v 54.1 prelim (confirmed 22nd month of expansion but lowest reading since Aug 2020).
– (EU) Euro Zone Apr Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 v 55.3 prelim (confirmed 22nd month of expansion).
– (NO) Norway Apr PMI Manufacturing: 60.6 v 57.5e (20th month of expansion).
– (DE) Germany Apr CPI Brandenburg M/M: % v 2.6% prior; Y/Y: % v 7.3% prior.
– (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 744.4B v 742.6B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 667.1B v 667.6B prior.
– (IT) Italy Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.4%e.
– (EU) Euro Zone Apr Economic Confidence: 105.0 v 108.0e; Industrial Confidence: 7.9 v 9.5e; Services Confidence: 13.5 v 13.5e; Consumer Confidence: -22.0 v -16.9 advance.
– (DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: 63.0 v 61.9 prior r (14th straight expansion).
Fixed income issuance
– None seen.
– (RO) Romania Apr International Reserves: No est v $45.9B prior.
– 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
– 05:30 ((DE) Germany to sell combined €6.0B in 3-month and 9-month BuBills.
– 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-3.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.
– 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).
– 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.
– 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
– 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.
– 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +0.4%e v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior.
– 08:00 (CZ) Czech Apr Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -59.1B prior.
– 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
– 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming auctions.
– 08:30 (CL) Chile Mar Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: -0.5%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 6.8% prior.
– 08:30 (CL) Chile Traders Survey.
– 08:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -31.0Be v +84.1B prior; Primary Budget Balance: -10.0Be v +101.8B prior; Net Debt to GDP ratio: 57.0%e v 56.6% prior.
– 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €4.4-5.6B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
– 09:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.3 prior.
– 09:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.
– 09:30 (CA) Canada Apr Manufacturing PMI: No est v 58.9 prior.
– 09:45 (US) Apr Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 59.7e v 59.7 prelim.
– 10:00 (US) Apr ISM Manufacturing: 57.6e v 57.1 prior; Prices Paid: 87.4e v 87.1 prior.
– 10:00 (US) Mar Construction Spending M/M: 0.8%e v 0.5% prior.
– 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Total Remittances: No est v $3.9B prior.
– 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.
– 10:30 (MX) Mexico Apr Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.2 prior.
– 11:00 (CO) Colombia Apr PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.1 prior.
– 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.
– 12:00 (IT) Italy Apr New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -29.7% prior.
– (IT) Italy Apr Budget Balance: No est v -€24.7B prior.
– 13:00 (MX) Mexico Apr IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 52.3 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 52.9 prior.
– 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.
– 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Building Permits M/M: No est v 10.5% prior.
– 19:00 (KR) South Korea Apr CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.4%e v 4.1% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior.
– 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 96.5 prior.
– 19:30 (AU) RBA’s Bullock speech.
– 20:01 (IE) Ireland Apr Manufacturing PMI: No est v 59.4 prior.
– 20:30 (TH) Thailand Apr Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.8 prior.
– (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Apr Minutes.